# Understanding Climate Change Through the Lens of Exo-Civilizations
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Chapter 1: The Cosmic Perspective on Climate Change
How might extraterrestrial tourists, if they exist, respond to climate change? The Universe is a vast expanse that brings forth galaxies, comets, black holes, and neutron stars, among other phenomena.
We have recently discovered that climate change is a widespread occurrence across various planets. However, it remains uncertain whether this phenomenon forces civilizations to constantly seek energy or if their actions lead to their own planetary degradation. While there is optimism surrounding our efforts to create sustainable societies, the question of feasibility looms: has any civilization elsewhere succeeded in this endeavor?
Fortunately, scientific advancements have brought us closer to answering this intriguing question. My colleagues and I have published a pioneering study that outlines the histories of various planets and their evolving civilizations, along with the climate changes they experienced. Our team is composed of astronomers, geologists, and other specialists, and we approach our research as a form of "archeology of exo-civilizations," a term that aptly describes the civilizations of other worlds.
Astrophysicists refer to newly identified worlds as "exoplanets." The James Webb Space Telescope and other tools are now being employed to detect signs of life by investigating potential "exo-biospheres" on these exoplanets. Thus, with the existence of exoplanets and exo-biospheres, it's time to replace the term "extraterrestrial" with a more relevant one: exo-civilizations.
Understanding the development of these exo-civilizations on their respective planets is crucial. Given that the cosmos may host over 10 trillion planets, it is likely that we are not alone in our journey. Each civilization, emerging from its planet's biosphere, has its own narrative—a history of growth followed potentially by a decline or collapse. The extinction of numerous species on Earth serves as a reminder that many civilizations (if they ever existed) probably faced their own challenges. Therefore, we analyze their potential experiences to gain insights into our future. Although concrete evidence of exo-civilizations is lacking, we can rely on the laws of planetary science.
In our exploration, we have dispatched robotic explorers to numerous worlds within our solar system. We've established a weather station on Mars, observed the greenhouse effect on Venus, and witnessed rain cascading over methane lakes on Titan. These missions have allowed us to grasp the fundamental physics and chemistry that govern climate dynamics. We can utilize these principles to anticipate the Earth's responses to events such as asteroid impacts or the emergence of industrialized civilizations. To advance our understanding of exo-civilizations, we build upon these planetary laws, creating systems to track changes in the interaction between a planet and its developing civilization. However, the planetary laws of physics and chemistry offer only part of the narrative. To comprehend the viability of civilizations on other worlds, we must also consider biological factors.
Section 1.1: The Role of Biology in Civilization Development
Science fiction often presents vivid images of alien species. Interestingly, many resemble humans but may have differing physical features. In developing scientific models of exo-civilizations, my colleagues and I deliberately avoided speculating on the biology or social structures of these potential beings. Our focus is grounded in established scientific methodologies rather than conjecture. Nonetheless, one discipline, anthropology, provides valuable insights.
During the early 20th century, pioneering researchers like Alfred Lotka sought to create mathematical models to understand ecological relationships, such as those between predators and prey. Such models now help biologists analyze everything from disease spread to the impact of invasive species. This approach has also been applied to human civilizations and their collapses, such as in the case of Easter Island.
We employ these methodologies to construct a simplified model of civilization evolution on its home planet. In our framework, the scale of an exo-civilization is linked to its planetary environment through energy utilization and its consequences. The Earth supplies resources that civilizations harness to thrive. As civilizations extract more energy from their planet, their influence grows, including their capacity for reproduction. This connection between available energy (like food for simpler life forms) and reproductive rates is pivotal for understanding human population dynamics.
For humanity, the surge in population linked to the use of fertilizers correlates with our reliance on fossil fuels. Initially, greater energy availability translates to larger populations. However, there is no "free lunch" from a planetary standpoint. Utilizing all this energy provokes responses from the planet itself. This is a phenomenon we are just beginning to grasp, particularly in relation to climate change. If global warming escalates, everything from energy availability to food production will face significant challenges, making it untenable for large human populations to persist. Thus, our model of exo-civilization integrates the planet's growing influence with the diminishing population.
Section 1.2: The Trajectories of Civilizational Growth
To account for various responses of exo-civilizations to changing planetary circumstances, we incorporate a variable that reflects how a civilization can adapt to evolving conditions. For simplicity, we consider two types of energy resources: one with a high environmental impact (such as fossil fuels) and another with a low impact (like solar energy). Our model allows civilizations to transition between these energy sources as necessary.
What insights does our model provide? We identify three distinct narratives concerning civilizations. The first, rather ironically, is labeled "death." In this scenario, as a civilization consumes energy, its population surges, but the resultant resource depletion leads to a departure from the environmental conditions that once sustained it.
Subsection 1.2.1: The Cycle of Collapse and Sustainability
As a civilization progresses, it may exceed its planet's carrying capacity, resulting in a drastic population decline until equilibrium is reestablished. Eventually, a sustainable civilization may emerge, albeit at a significant cost. Historically, we've observed that up to 70% of a species' population may perish before achieving stability. The question remains whether a technologically advanced civilization like ours could endure such a crisis. We witness echoes of this in the history of Easter Island, where the civilization's overexploitation of resources led to its downfall.
The second narrative is more optimistic: "soft failure." Here, while population growth and environmental change occur, a new equilibrium is achieved, allowing civilization to adapt positively.
The final trajectory, however, is the most alarming: total failure. In this scenario, civilizations are overwhelmed by the extreme pressures imposed by their environments. These planets react sensitively to changes, akin to houseplants that wilt with minor disturbances. Conditions deteriorate rapidly, leading to the potential extinction of their inhabitants. Although transitioning from high-impact to low-impact energy sources may seem beneficial, it does not guarantee survival for all civilizations, as some may still face collapse even if the decline is postponed.
The instances of collapse, even in the wake of informed choices, underscore a crucial point about systemic processes. The equations we employ capture certain complexities of reality that may yield surprising results. In cases of "delayed collapse," the feedback loop within a civilization's environment can lead to irreversible changes. We recognize this phenomenon even in the absence of civilization, as exemplified by Venus, which transformed into a hostile world due to an unchecked greenhouse effect.
Our model represents a foundational step toward understanding exo-civilizations. We have simplified our equations to explore the concept of "co-evolution" in civilization origins. While it is too late to definitively answer whether other civilizations have succeeded, our work provides essential insights into potential outcomes. We must incorporate comprehensive climate physics and acknowledge the limits of energy resources available to burgeoning civilizations. This understanding is constrained by the laws of physics: combustion, solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, and a few others.
While our initial models are rudimentary, they reveal a stark reality regarding the challenges we face as humanity endeavors to dominate Earth. Unless the cosmos harbors a grand design against us, it is plausible that other civilizations have encountered these same challenges throughout history. The Anthropocene may not be an anomaly.
From this perspective, the narrative of climate change transcends local political debates. Instead, it represents a cosmic trial, challenging us to learn from those who have navigated these trials—or risk becoming a civilization that neglects its own planetary stewardship.